Over the fiscal cliff: Soft landing or dizzy dive?

Over the fiscal cliff: Soft landing or dizzy dive?
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Speaker of the House John Boehner,…

WASHINGTON (AP) — Efforts to save the nation from going over a year-end "fiscal cliff" were in disarray as lawmakers fled the Capitol for their Christmas break. "God only knows" how a deal can be reached now, House Speaker John Boehner declared.

President Barack Obama, on his way out of town himself, insisted a bargain could still be struck before Dec. 31. "Call me a hopeless optimist," he said.

A look at why it's so hard for Republicans and Democrats to compromise on urgent matters of taxes and spending, and what happens if they fail to meet their deadline:

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NEW YEAR'S HEADACHE

Partly by fate, partly by design, some scary fiscal forces come together at the start of 2013 unless Congress and Obama act to stop them. They include:

— Some $536 billion in tax increases, touching nearly all Americans, because various federal tax cuts and breaks expire at year's end.

— About $110 billion in spending cuts divided equally between the military and most other federal departments. That's about 8 percent of their annual budgets, 9 percent for the Pentagon.

Hitting the national economy with that double whammy of tax increases and spending cuts is what's called going over the "fiscal cliff." If allowed to unfold over 2013, it would lead to recession, a big jump in unemployment and financial market turmoil, economists predict.

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WHAT IF THEY MISS THE DEADLINE?

If New Year's Day arrives without a deal, the nation shouldn't plunge onto the shoals of recession immediately. There still might be time to engineer a soft landing.

So long as lawmakers and the president appear to be working toward agreement, the tax hikes and spending cuts could mostly be held at bay for a few weeks. Then they could be retroactively repealed once a deal was reached.

The big wild card is the stock market and the nation's financial confidence: Would traders start to panic if Washington appeared unable to reach accord? Would worried consumers and businesses sharply reduce their spending? In what could be a preview, stock prices around the world dropped Friday after House Republican leaders' plan for addressing the fiscal cliff collapsed.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has warned lawmakers that the economy is already suffering from the uncertainty and they shouldn't risk making it worse by blowing past their deadline.

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WHAT IF THEY NEVER AGREE?

If negotiations between Obama and Congress collapse completely, 2013 looks like a rocky year.

Taxes would jump $2,400 on average for families with incomes of $50,000 to $75,000, according to a study by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center. Because consumers would get less of their paychecks to spend, businesses and jobs would suffer.

At the same time, Americans would feel cuts in government services; some federal workers would be furloughed or laid off, and companies would lose government business. The nation would lose up to 3.4 million jobs, the Congressional Budget Office predicts.

"The consequences of that would be felt by everybody," Bernanke says.

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THE TAXES

Much of the disagreement surrounds the George W. Bush-era income tax cuts, and whether those rates should be allowed to rise for the nation's wealthiest taxpayers. Both political parties say they want to protect the middle-class from tax increases.

Several tax breaks begun in 2009 to stimulate the economy by aiding low- and middle-income families are also set to expire Jan. 1. The alternative minimum tax would expand to catch 28 million more taxpayers, with an average increase of $3,700 a year. Taxes on investments would rise, too. More deaths would be covered by the federal estate tax, and the rate climbs from 35 percent to 55 percent. Some corporate tax breaks would end.

The temporary Social Security payroll tax cut also is due to expire. That tax break for most Americans seems likely to end even if a fiscal cliff deal is reached, now that Obama has backed down from his call to prolong it as an economic stimulus.

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THE SPENDING

If the nation goes over the fiscal cliff, budget cuts of 8 or 9 percent would hit most of the federal government, touching all sorts of things from agriculture to law enforcement and the military to weather forecasting. A few areas, such as Social Security benefits, Veterans Affairs and some programs for the poor, are exempt.

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THERE'S MORE AT STAKE

All sorts of stuff could get wrapped up in the fiscal cliff deal-making. A sampling:

— Some 2 million jobless Americans may lose their federal unemployment aid. Obama wants to continue the benefits extension as part of the deal; Republicans say it's too costly.

— Social Security recipients might see their checks grow more slowly. As part of a possible deal, Obama and Republican leaders want to change the way cost-of-living adjustments are calculated, which would mean smaller checks over the years for retirees who get Social Security, veterans' benefits or government pensions.

— The price of milk could double. If Congress doesn't provide a fix for expiring dairy price supports before Jan. 1, milk-drinking families could feel the pinch. One scenario is to attach a farm bill extension to the fiscal cliff legislation — if a compromise is reached in time.

— Millions of taxpayers who want to file their 2012 returns before mid-March will be held up while they wait to see if Congress comes through with a deal to stop the alternative minimum tax from hitting more people.

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CALL THE WHOLE THING OFF?

In theory, Congress and Obama could just say no to the fiscal cliff, by extending all the tax cuts and overturning the automatic spending reductions in current law. But both Republicans and Democrats agree it's time to take steps to put the nation on a path away from a future of crippling debt.

Indeed, the automatic spending cuts set for January were created as a last-ditch effort to force Congress to deal with the debt problem.

If Washington bypassed the fiscal cliff, the next crisis would be just around the corner, in late February or early March, when the government reaches a $16.4 trillion ceiling on the amount of money it can borrow.

Boehner says Republicans won't go along with raising the limit on government borrowing unless the increase is matched by spending cuts to help attack the long-term debt problem. Failing to raise the debt ceiling could lead to a first-ever U.S. default that would roil the financial markets and shake worldwide confidence in the United States.

To avoid that scenario, Obama and Boehner are trying to wrap a debt limit agreement into the fiscal cliff negotiations.

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SO WHAT'S THE HOLDUP?

They're at loggerheads over some big questions.

Obama says any deal must include higher taxes for the wealthiest Americans. Many House Republicans oppose raising anyone's tax rates. Boehner tried to get the House to vote for higher taxes only on incomes above $1 million but dropped the effort when it became clear he didn't have the votes.

Republicans also insist on deeper spending cuts than Democrats want to make. And they want to bring the nation's long-term debt under control by significantly curtailing the growth of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security — changes that many Democrats oppose.

Obama, meanwhile, wants more temporary economic "stimulus" spending to help speed up a sluggish recovery. Republicans say the nation can't afford it.

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IT'S NOT JUST WASHINGTON

Seems like they could just make nice, shake hands and split their differences, right?

But there's a reason neither side wants to give ground. The two parties represent a divided and inconsistent America. True, Obama just won re-election. But voters also chose a Republican majority in the House.

Republican and Democrats alike say they are doing what the voters back home want.

Neither side has a clear advantage in public opinion. In an Associated Press-GfK poll, 43 percent said they trust the Democrats more to manage the federal budget deficit and 40 percent preferred the Republicans. There's a similar split on who's more trusted with taxes.

About half of Americans support higher taxes for the wealthy, the poll says, and about 10 percent want tax increases all around. Still, almost half say cutting government services, not raising taxes, should be the main focus of lawmakers as they try to balance the budget.

When asked about specific budget cuts being discussed in Washington, few Americans express support for them.

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THE COUNTDOWN

Time for deal-making is short, thanks to the holiday and congressional calendars. Some key dates for averting the fiscal cliff:

— Lawmakers aren't expected to return to the Capitol until after Christmas, leaving less than a week to vote on a compromise before year's end.

— Obama and his family also left town for a Christmas vacation in Hawaii. The president said because the fiscal cliff was still unresolved, he would return to Washington this week.

— If lawmakers reach Dec. 31 without a deal, some economists worry that the financial markets might swoon.

— The current Congress is in session only through noon Eastern time on Jan. 3. After that, a newly elected Congress with 13 new senators and 82 new House members would inherit the problem.

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Associated Press writers Jim Kuhnhenn, Alan Fram and Andrew Taylor and Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

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Follow Connie Cass on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/ConnieCass

Sandusky Says He's Trying to 'Grow'

Sandusky Says He's Trying to 'Grow'

Jerry Sandusky penned a handwritten note from jail saying that he was trying to "learn from, grow from, and endure the struggles" he's faced since being charged with 48 counts of child sexual abuse in 2011.

Sandusky, the former defensive coordinator of Penn State University's football team, was convicted of 45 of the counts in June, and sentenced to at least 30 years in prison. At age 68, he would be 98 years old before he is eligible for parole.

His first appeal hearing is set for Jan. 10.

In a letter written on a scrap of paper to the Citizen Voice newspaper of central Pennsylvania and dated Dec. 18, Sandusky declined a request for an interview because of his pending appeal, but reiterated his belief that "justice and fairness were not a focus" of his trial.

Jerry Sandusky Case in Pictures

"Right now, our focus is on appeal. Time is much to learn, issues and information not presented," he wrote. "Nobody, who covered the case and reported it had the time or took the time o study the allegations, the accusers, the inconsistency, and the methods."

More than 10 individuals have come forward claiming Sandusky sexually abused them when they were young boys. He knew all of the children through the charity he founded, The Second Mile.

In the letter, he wrote that his new goal and motto is the word "ENDURE," with each letter representing a different goal:

E- Embrace each day as a gift

N - Never surrender except to God

D - Don't let your situation get the best of you

U- Understand God's purpose and presence.

R- Remain as positive as possible

E - Exercise your mind, body, and spirit.

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Sandia Lab building solar test centers across US

Sandia Lab building solar test centers across US

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — One of the National Security Administration's three national laboratories is building regional testing centers around the country to field-test hardware for solar companies before their multimillion-dollar solar systems are installed in buildings.

The Sandia National Laboratory is building test centers in Albuquerque, Denver, Las Vegas, Orlando, Fla., and Burlington, Vt., the Albuquerque Journal reported (http://bit.ly/Y5OGyw).

"The centers are designed to not only provide independent assessments of commercial systems, but to do that in multiple locations and climates," Sandia solar group member Jennifer Granata said.

The test facilities will provide enhanced monitoring and improved performance prediction capabilities for new technologies being introduced to the market and will have detailed weather stations and measuring and monitoring equipment such as simulators, performance curve tracers and infrared and digital cameras.

They will help develop standard procedures to assess performance of large-scale systems that other labs, utilities and investors can use.

Select companies will then set up their own systems of between 10 and 300 kilowatts on site.

The companies doing field testing at the centers will be responsible for the costs of their systems, while the government will provide labor and expertise.

The lab also just completed a $17.8 million upgrade to its National Solar Thermal Test Facility in Albuquerque.

While the test centers will focus on solar systems that directly convert sunlight to electricity, the lab's Solar Thermal Test Facility is working to improve concentrating solar power systems that use sunlight to heat liquids to generate steam for turbine generators.

That facility was established in 1976 in Albuquerque, but much of it had never been updated until now.

Upgrades included construction of a $10 million Molten Salt Test Loop, and a nearly $4 million overhaul of the facility's "solar tower."

Concentrating solar power systems are increasingly using molten salt to retain heat from the sun because it's cheap and abundant, and it stores thermal energy for long periods, allowing the systems to generate steam for turbines well after the sun goes down. But energy developers need a better understanding of how pressure, high temperature and flow rates interact and impact a system's overall operation.

The Molten Salt Test Loop is now the only test facility in the nation that can provide real power-plant conditions and collect data to help companies make commercial decisions about such systems, Sandia researcher Cheryl Ghanbari said.

Sandia National Laboratories' has a main campus on Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque and another in Livermore, Calif., near the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The research and development facilities work on a variety of federal science projects and are operated under government contract by Sandia Corp., a subsidiary of defense giant Lockheed Martin Corp. Sandia's objectives include ensuring the security of the nation's nuclear stockpile and addressing threats to national security.

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Information from: Albuquerque Journal, http://www.abqjournal.com

Obama has long work list to tackle when he returns

Obama has long work list to tackle when he returns
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President Barack Obama looks down…

WASHINGTON (AP) — It's hardly a secret that Barack Obama, like every president no doubt, muses about his ultimate legacy and spot in the presidential pantheon. He approaches his second term confronting tough and shifting challenges that will play big roles in shaping the rest of his presidency and his eventual place in history.

In the coming months, Obama will have to decide where to be ambitious, where to be cautious, and where to buy time.

He draws political strength from his surprisingly easy re-election in a bad economy. It's partly offset, however, by Republicans' continued control of the House, plus their filibuster powers in the Senate.

Some of the big issues awaiting the president's decisions are familiar, long-simmering problems. They include immigration and the need for a tenable balance between taxes, spending and borrowing.

Another issue, gun control, jumped to the national agenda's top tier this month following the massacre of first-graders and teachers in a Connecticut school. And the issue of climate change remains unresolved.

Veteran politicians and presidential historians say it's almost impossible for Obama to "go big" on all these issues. Indeed, it might prove difficult to go big on even one. While some counsel caution, others urge the president to be as bold and ambitious as possible.

"Americans are yearning for leadership," said Gil Troy, a presidential scholar at McGill University.

As a president dealing with policy, he said, Obama has generally failed to give "that visionary, powerful address that we came to know and love and expect in the 2008 campaign."

Rather than let Congress take the lead on big issues, as it did in drafting the 2009 health care overhaul, Obama should be more forceful in pushing new legislation or using his executive powers to bypass Congress where possible, Troy said.

"The gun control issue is a major opportunity for Obama to make his mark on history -- and solve a problem that has frustrated Democrats for decades," he added.

Other presidential historians, however, think Obama is severely constrained by political realities. They say he will have to carefully pick and choose which goals to emphasize in his second four years.

"I see Obama as almost uniquely handcuffed by circumstances," said John Baick of Western New England University. The number of big, unresolved problems facing the nation, coupled with a deeply divided public and Congress, he said, leave Obama with fewer viable options than most presidents have enjoyed.

At best, Baick said, the U.S. government "is a gigantic cruise liner, and the most he can do is keep us from hitting ice bergs."

For instance, Baick said, "if he goes big on gun control, then it's 1994 all over again."

Then-President Bill Clinton pushed an assault weapons ban through the Democratic-led Congress that year, prompting fierce pushback from gun-rights groups. Clinton later would credit the NRA with shifting the House majority to the GOP for the first time in 40 years. However, other factors -- including a House bank scandal -- played big roles, too.

Paul Rego, a political scientist at Messiah College in Grantham, Penn., largely agrees with Baick.

"While President Obama does not face the same cataclysmic events that Abraham Lincoln faced, or that FDR encountered in the form of the Great Depression and World War II, his challenges are many and significant," Rego said in an email.

He said Obama "faces a hurdle that neither Lincoln nor Roosevelt had to overcome during the tumultuous years of their respective presidencies: divided government." Today's Democrats and Republicans differ so sharply about government's proper role, Rego said. He said that Obama's job "is actually harder than that of his most illustrious predecessors."

Politicians of all stripes say Obama's first priority is to resolve the deep partisan divide over tax-and-spending issues, exemplified by repeated impasses over two years that led to this week's showdown on the "fiscal cliff."

An even higher-risk conflict may arise in a few months. Congress again must either raise the federal debt ceiling or see the government default on its loans.

Beyond that, lawmakers and interest groups are watching for signs of how hard Obama might push to restrict firearms and expand illegal immigrants' rights.

Obama said last Wednesday that gun control will be a central issue in his second term. "I will use all the powers of this office to help advance efforts aimed at preventing more tragedies like this," he said of the Sandy Hook Elementary School mass killings.

The president named an interagency task force to recommend anti-violence legislation within weeks. The strategy gives him room to distance himself somewhat from its recommendations if he wants, even though he named Vice President Joe Biden to chair the panel.

Americans' affinity for firearms runs deep, and many political activists think Obama could have more sweeping success with immigration changes.

He won a big majority of Hispanics' votes in both his elections. The trend alarms Republican strategists, who fear their party won't win another presidential election until it repairs its bad relations with Latinos.

With Democrats and Republicans increasingly aware of Hispanics' growing political clout, "this might be an historic opportunity," Troy said.

Chris Dolan, a political scientist at Lebanon Valley College in Pennsylvania, agrees. He said he expects Obama to be "incredibly ambitious on comprehensive immigration reform."

The effort, Dolan said, could "build a lasting Democratic support group. You can't do that with gun control."

Still, opposition to granting citizenship to illegal immigrants runs deep in many circles, especially the Republican Party's base. Bids for "comprehensive immigration reform" have gone nowhere in Congress in recent years.

Several advocacy groups want Obama to make the most of his executive powers to enact measures that don't require congressional action.

The Migration Policy Institute earlier this year made several suggestions regarding immigrants. They included "establishing uniform enforcement priorities," defining "what constitutes effective border control," and "allowing applicants for immigrant visas to file in the United States."

Now that Obama has won re-election, however, the advocacy group wants him instead to push a broader agenda through Congress.

"With the issue teed up for possible action," said Doris Meissner, a former commissioner at the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, antagonizing congressional Republicans with executive actions "would not be politically smart."

The political climate for sweeping immigration changes "is significantly better," Meissner said, "but that does not mean it will happen."

Even with a full plate of challenges and a hostile party controlling the House, she said, "I think Obama absolutely has to go big on immigration."

The White House has declined to detail the president's plans for a second-term agenda. Once the deficit-spending problems known as the "fiscal cliff" are addressed, said White House spokeswoman Jamie Smith, "President Obama looks forward to working on a number of issues that are critical to our future, from immigration to energy, to education and national security direction."

Dakar mosque lit up for Christmas in Senegal

Dakar mosque lit up for Christmas in Senegal
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In this Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2012…

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In this Wednesday, Dec. 12, 2012…

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In this Wednesday, Dec. 12, 2012…

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In this Wednesday, Dec. 12, 2012…

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In this Wednesday, Dec. 12, 2012…

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In this Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2012…

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — After prayers at the mosque, Ibrahim Lo is off to do some last-minute Christmas shopping. Soon he is eyeing the rows of dolls wrapped in plastic bags on a wooden table as he searches for gifts for his four children.

A bouquet of inflatable Santa toys tied to a nearby tree bobs in the air at this outdoor market in the seaside capital as he makes his picks.

It looks a lot like Christmas in Senegal, where 95 percent of the 12.8 million residents are Muslim. Even the Grande Mosquee, a mosque that dominates the city's skyline, is aglow in holiday lights.

"When they go to school, the children learn about Santa," says Lo, wearing a flowing olive green robe known as a boubou. "We are born into the Senegalese tradition of cohabitation between Muslims and Christians. What is essential is the respect between people."

Senegal, a moderate country along Africa's western coast, has long been a place where Christians and Muslims have coexisted peacefully. Most Christians here are Catholic and live in the south of country and in the capital.

Hadim Thiam, 30, normally sells shoes but during December he's expanded to an elaborate spread of tinsel, cans of spray snow and fireworks.

"It's not linked to God. It's for the children," says Jean Mouss, 55, a Christian out shopping for holiday decorations at Thiam's stand. "We wish Muslims a Merry Christmas and invite them into our homes for the holiday."

Signs of Christmas are prevalent in this tropical seaside capital.

Green and flocked plastic trees of every size are sold on street corners alongside Nescafe carts and vendors splitting open coconuts. "My First Christmas" baby sleepers are folded neatly on the top of the piles of second-hand clothing for sale on the streets. There are French "buches de Noel" and chocolate snowmen for sale in the upscale patisseries.

At lunchtime, a chorus of schoolchildren singing "Silent Night" echoes across a courtyard. The main cathedral is now a spectacle of lights each night — no easy feat for a city often subjected to power cuts.

Still, not everyone in Senegal thinks embracing Christmas is all in good cheer. Mouhamed Seck, a Quranic teacher and imam for a mosque in a Dakar suburb, says taking part in the holiday is supporting a non-Muslim's religion.

"Islam forbids Muslims from taking part in these festivities," he says.

Parents who celebrate Christmas, though, say it's a secular time to celebrate with their families on a national holiday.

"To make my two children happy, I buy gifts for them and ask their mother to prepare a very hearty meal but we don't go to Mass," says Oumar Fall, 46, who has a 10-year-old and a 13-year-old.

Santa Claus, known in this former French colony as Pere Noel, also makes the rounds at upscale shopping centers and grocery stores in the weeks before Christmas.

Mamadou Sy, 40, had been working at a hotel in Morocco until his visa recently expired. Now back in Senegal, he's making extra money this December as a Santa at the seaside Magicland amusement park.

Like children everywhere, some are frightened by him, but most just want pictures — and presents.

"Senegal is a unique case where 5 percent of the country is Christian," he says, seeking shade while wearing his red fur costume and hat. "Christians celebrate Muslim holidays and Muslims celebrate Christian holidays."

The tradition even extends to Senegalese schools. Therese Angelique Soumare's students all get together for a Christmas party the weekend before the holiday with their parents. The teachers put presents under a tree and Santa Claus shows up to hand them out.

"Everyone celebrates because it's for the children. Here in Senegal we are good neighbors," she says as she picks out gifts for the party. "We sing, we dance and we love seeing the children's joy."

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Associated Press writer Sadibou Marone contributed to this report.

Official: Navy SEAL died of apparent suicide

Official: Navy SEAL died of apparent suicide
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WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. military officials are investigating the apparent suicide of a Navy SEAL commander in Afghanistan.

Cmdr. Job W. Price, 42, of Pottstown, Pa., died Saturday of a gunshot wound to the head while supporting stability operations in Uruzgan Province, Afghanistan, a U.S. military official said Monday on condition of anonymity because the death is still under investigation.

The official said Price failed to show up for an appointment and was found when others went to check on him.

Price was from Virginia Beach, Va.-based SEAL Team 4, which is part of the mission to train Afghan local police to stave off the Taliban in remote parts of Afghanistan.

It was not immediately known when Price started his tour of duty in Afghanistan, though he had been in command of the team of 25 to 30 men since June 2011, the official said. He said Price had no immediately known professional or work problems other than the stresses of deployment, which can be tremendous for troops.

"The Naval Special Warfare family is deeply saddened by the loss of our teammate," said Capt. Robert Smith, Commander of Naval Special Warfare Group Two, which manages all Virginia-based Navy SEAL teams. "We extend our condolences, thoughts and prayers to the family, friends, and NSW community during this time of grieving."

"As we mourn the loss and honor the memory of our fallen teammate, those he served with will continue to carry out the mission," Smith added Sunday.

Price is survived by a wife and a daughter.

His body is to be returned to the United States early Tuesday.

1 killed, 1 wounded in bar shooting near Seattle

1 killed, 1 wounded in bar shooting near Seattle

BELLEVUE, Wash. (AP) — A 30-year-old Seattle man was killed and another man wounded in a shooting at a crowded bar in Bellevue, Wash., early Monday, police said.

The shooting broke out just after 1 a.m. at Munchbar at Bellevue Square, an upscale shopping center about 10 miles east of Seattle, said Carla Iafrate, a spokeswoman for the Bellevue Police Department.

Police officers were outside the bar when gunfire erupted because a large crowd had gathered there, she said.

More than 600 people were inside the venue at the time of the shooting. "It was a very complicated scene," Iafrate said.

The wounded man was taken to a hospital. Iafrate did not immediately know his age or hometown.

The shooting appears to be an isolated incident. No one has been arrested, and investigators were trying to put together a description of the shooter, she said.

No officers were involved in the shooting.

Witnesses described a chaotic scene, telling local media they dove for cover or hit the floor when they heard gunshots.